No. 11: 2009-2010 Team Preview: Duke Blue Devils

2008-2009 Record: 30-7, 11-5 ACC (t-2nd)

Key Losses: Gerald Henderson (16.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Elliot Williams (4.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg), Greg Paulus (4.9 ppg)

Key Returners: Kyle Singler (16.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg), Jon Scheyer (14.9 ppg, 2.8 apg), Miles Plumlee (1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg), Nolan Smith (8.4 ppg)

Newcomers: Andre Dawkins, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly

Kyle Singler may end up being the ACC player of the year.
(photo credit: Duke Basketball Forever)

The last few seasons, Duke has been notorious for two things - relying on the three-ball to score and their pressuring, over-playing, man-to-man defense. But as the Blue Devils lose so much from their perimeter - Gerald Henderson, Elliot Williams, and Greg Paulus - we are going to be seeing a much different Duke team.

The biggest reason is that the Devils are going to be loaded on the interior this season. It starts with seniors Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas. Zoubek had some fairly high expectations coming out of high school, but has never really found the consistency to be a real factor in ACC play. He isn't strong enough to battle down low and he isn't quick enough to really be a threat on the offensive end. Thomas has been a solid role player in this three years. An excellent athlete with a great motor, Thomas, who may end up coming off the bench, will provide Duke with defense and hustle.

The fact that two seniors may be relegated to the bench should tell you about the potential of this Duke front line. The crown jewels are the Plumlee brothers. Miles, a sophomore, had trouble earning a spot in the rotation last season. He struggled a bit offensively and seemed to get lost at times on the defensive end, but there is no denying his potential. At 6'10", 240 lb, Miles has the build to be an excellent shot blocker but he also has the skills and the athleticism to be a dangerous player on the offensive end. The question is will he put it all together?

Mason, a freshman, might have even more potential. He is a better athlete and more skilled offensively, and while Miles will be stronger in the paint this season after a summer in the weight room, Mason seems to be more of a face-up player. Mason will wreak havoc on the defensive end with his length and should be very dangerous in the open floor.

The other freshman big man is Ryan Kelly. Kelly should be able to fit in at Duke immediately. A lot of scouting reports you read about him are going to say that he plays a "European style". What that means is that the 6'10" Kelly has an offensive game based on the perimeter. He is an excellent shooter with range out to the college three, but he is also a decent ball handler and an excellent passer. Kelly may need a year to become an ACC caliber player on the defensive end, but he definitely will be contributing to the Devils right away.

And then there is Kyle Singler. What can I say about Singler that hasn't already been said? He is one of the best forwards in the country, and will get a chance to prove his ability playing almost exclusively as a three this season. He can shoot, he can get to the rim, he will defend, he can pass, he can rebound. The kid is simply a basketball player, and one of the best in the country. ACC player of the year and first team all-american? Its very possible.

As I said, the back court is where the issues will be this year. Duke only has three guards on the roster - Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and Andre Dawkins. Smith is the guy a lot of people are saying will be the x-factor of this team. He is going to be starting at the point, and Duke is going to need to him to live up to the hype he had coming out of high school. An excellent defender and athlete for the point guard spot, Smith's offensive ability has been a bit inconsistent in his first two seasons. While he has shown flashes, he hasn't been the all-around scorer and playmaker he was expected to be.

You know what you are going to get out of Jon Scheyer. He's a heady scorer with a knack for hitting tough shots in the mid-range. An under-appreciated defender, Scheyer is a kid who was looked over a bit from a national perspective. The biggest issue for Scheyer is that he struggles when he has to play off the ball. Not because he doesn't have the ability, but because he is unable to take advantage of his size and strength against bigger defenders. Scheyer played his best basketball last season when Elliot Williams was moved into the starting line-up. All of a sudden, the big, strong, and athletic ACC two-guards were defending Williams, and Scheyer was able to go against the smaller point guards, taking advantage of his superior size and strength.

Which is why the signing and development of Andre Dawkins will be so important. Dawkins, who decided to enroll at Duke early instead of attend a fifth year of high school, is an extremely athletic 6'4" wing. He can score, he can defend, and he can get to the rim and finish. But will he be able to compete in the ACC as an 18 year old? If yes, than that will allow Scheyer to play a lot of minutes on the ball. If not, than Dawkins is still going to be playing a lot of minutes. Duke has no one else.

Outlook: The Blue Devils have a lot of potential on this team, and it is too early to peg them right now. I can see this team putting it all together and winning the ACC en route to a Final Four trip. But I can also see their bigs struggling inside, Nolan Smith unable to carry the torch, and the Dukies ending up outside the top 25 most of the year. With their size, length, and athleticism across the front line, and thanks to Coach K's time spent this summer with Jim Boeheim, Duke will be playing more zone than in years past. Will these guys learn to be effective in it? My prediction: 11-12 ACC wins, 24 or 25 wins on the year, and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen as a 4 or 5 seed.
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Andre Dawkins graduates high school, will enroll at Duke

Earlier this week, Jon Scheyer did two interviews (with Rivals and SI) where he ... how do I say this ... oozed confidence? Scheyer was quoted in both publications as saying, actually it was closer to guaranteeing, that Duke would be a top 10 team by the end of the year. He caught some flack around the intrawebs for these comments.

Maybe he already knew something we didn't.

Yesterday, news broke that Andre Dawkins, a 17 year old fourth year junior in high school (he repeated freshman year after transferring), had finished enough credits in summer school to graduate a year early. He will be enrolling at Duke for the fall semester.

This is huge for the Blue Devils. As has been widely reported, Duke was left with just two guards on their roster after Gerald Henderson went pro and Elliot Williams transferred to Memphis. It doesn't take a basketball genius to figure out that you need more than two guards on your roster to be successful in the ACC.

Even if the Blue Devils had a full roster in the back court, signing a consensus top 25 player (and top 10 by some publications) is always a good thing. But more than talent, what Dawkins provides the short-handed Devils is versatility.

Last season, Jon Scheyer struggled when he was forced to play the two. The bigger, more athletic wing defenders were wreaked havoc on his ability to score. But when he played the point, he was able to use his size and strength advantage to get his shot off, and overall seemed a much more confidant player. With Dawkins on the roster, Scheyer will be able to slide over and get some time at the one.

Almost as important is that this third guard will allow Kyle Singler to get some time at the four spot. What makes Singler such an effective player is that his skill set is essentially that of a wing player, but his size allows him to defend the four. This creates an easily exploitable mismatch on the offensive end. If Singler had to play strictly as a two or three, I'm not sure he would be as effective offensively and I'm fairly certain he would struggle defensively against the smaller, quicker wings in the ACC.

Duke fans shouldn't count on Dawkins as their savior. He's not the same type of player as Henderson or Williams. Those two were athletic slashers and excellent defenders. Right now, Dawkins is a scorer with a lights out jumper. While he is "bouncy", he has yet to learn to use that athleticism to get to the rim or defend to ACC standards. Think Wayne Ellington as a freshman.

So Dawkins may not be the answer to Duke's season, he certainly is a large piece to the puzzle.

UPDATE: Here's a highlight video of Dawkins from high school (via RTC).


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Andre Dawkins to enroll at Duke a year early

At the end of this past season, it was obvious to many that Duke was going to be heading into this year shorthanded in the back court. With Greg Paulus heading to Syracuse to play football and Gerald Henderson headed to the draft, the Devils were left with Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Elliot Williams as the only three guards on their roster.

But then came the unexpected news that Elliot Williams, a freshman that changed the course of Duke's season over the last 12 games when he was inserted into the starting line-up, was transferring (back home to Memphis) in order to be closer to his mother, who is battling cancer.

With no guards in their recruiting class, Duke is going to be stuck with just two guards on their roster, right?

Wrong.

Earlier today, FOXSports broke the news that Andre Dawkins, a top 25 recruits in the class of '10, will try (and is almost a lock) to enroll at Duke a year early. While only a junior in terms of academics, Dawkins is in his fourth year of high school (after his freshman season at Deep Creek High (Va.), he transferred to Atlantic Shores High (Va.) for basketball reasons, repeating his freshman year). According to Andy Katz, Dawkins was most likely headed to Hargrave Military Academy next season.

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Andre Dawkins will be enrolling at Duke a year early.
(photo credit: Rivals)

Dawkins has taken all 16 core classes required by Duke, has received qualifying test scores, and has a 3.2 GPA. All he needs to do in order to enroll at Duke is to graduate high school, which is is looking to accomplish through summer school.

This would be a very important addition to the Blue Devils roster. Dawkins is cut from the same cloth as Williams and Henderson - a 6'4" wing with impressive athleticism, although it seems he may be a better shooter than either Williams or Henderson.

While this does provide Duke with another perimeter player, as well as the option of playing Scheyer at the point where he was much more effective last season, Blue Devils fans should not view Dawkins as their saving grace.

When Duke was playing their best basketball last season, it was when Scheyer was at the point and Kyle Singler was at the four. Why? Because Scheyer had all kinds of problems scoring against the bigger, more athletic two-guards you find in the ACC and Singler was most effective when he was guarded by power forwards, creating a mismatch on the offensive end. Even with the addition of Dawkins, Duke is going to have to either use Singler at the three or Scheyer at the two.

And while Dawkins will provide a bit more versatility and depth in the back court, going into the season with just three guards still means the Devils will be playing shorthanded. They have a talented front line (Singler, Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek, Ryan Kelly, and Mason and Miles Plumlee), and it will be interesting to see how Coach K runs this team considering he won't be able to run his the system he has these past few seasons - apressuring man-to-man defense and a three-point shooting offense.

It never hurts to add a player with the talent that Dawkins has. But Duke will still be forced to change up their style of play, likely playing some zone this year. If Dawkins has a freshman campaign on the same level as Henderson's or Williams', then expect Duke to stay near the top of the ACC.

But it still won't be enough for them to compete with UNC.

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