Point Guards in the Final Four

It is one of the most cliche things to say during the NCAA Tournament.

You need a great point guard to make a run in the dance.

We have all heard it before, and every bracketologist, whether you are on ESPN or the "expert" filling out your office pool, has more than likely uttered those words yourself. On the surface, it seems to hold true this year. Michigan State's point guard Kalin Lucas was Big Ten player of the year. UNC's Ty Lawson also won conference player of the year, in the ACC. UConn's AJ Price was a second team all Big-East selection, but has been one of the best point guards in the country since Jerome Dyson went down (19.2 ppg, 5.1 apg). Villanova's tandem of Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher is one of the more underrated point guard duos around.

Scottie Reynolds scores the game-winning hoop against Pitt.
(photo credit: Elise Amendola/AP)

So does correlation equal causation here? Easier put, are these point guards the reason that these four teams advanced to the Final Four?

Not necessarily.

Sure, they played a vital part. Reynolds hit the game-winner for Nova against Pitt in the Elite 8. Price is UConn's leading scorer through four tournament game. If the tournament ended today, Lawson might be the MOP of this year's dance.

But that doesn't mean they are the sole, or even most important, reason these four teams have advanced.

Take Michigan State. Lucas has been far from dominant through four games. He is averaging 12.8 ppg (down from 14.8) and has shot just 40% (15-37) from the floor. Goran Suton has actually been the best player for the Spartans during the tournament. He is averaging 14.0 ppg and 11.5 rpg (to go along with 2.3 apg, 2.3 spg, and 1.3 bpg). If he didn't score 17 first half points against Louisville, MSU may not have been in a position for the huge run they put on the Cardinals in the second half.

Price has been nothing short of great for the Huskies in their run to the Final Four. He has averaged 20.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and 5.3 apg. As valuable as he has been, Price has not been the most important player on the floor. UConn has won their four games simply because they out-big (is that even a word) every team they have faced. Hasheem Thabeet was a dominant force on both ends through the first three games, and when he struggled a bit against an uptempo Missouri squad, the more athletic Stanley Robinson and Jeff Adrien combined for 25 points, 16 boards, and 7 blocks. Price wasn't even the best guard on the floor in that game. Kemba Walker was, as he finished the game with 23 point, 5 boards, 5 assists, and broke the devastating Mizzou press by himself on a number of occasions.

AJ Price scores over DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons of Missouri.
(photo credit: Chris Carlson/AP)

For Villanova, since the first day of practice on October 15th, it has been all about team. It is tough to pick out a best or most valuable player for the Wildcats, simply because they have so many guys that are just solid players. Is Scottie Reynolds leadership really more important than the versatility provided by "posts" Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark? Is the dynamic Fisher more valuable than the fundamental play-maker Reggie Redding? More than anything, the reason that the Cats have made it this far is because they have been tougher, especially on the defense end, than anyone they have played (and that is saying something considering they beat Pitt in the Elite 8).

There is no question that Ty Lawson has been the best player on the floor for the Tar Heels. He took over the second half of the LSU game, scoring 21 points and helping UNC rally back after giving up a nine point half time lead. He continued that hot play against Gonzaga, as he scored 17 in the first half to help UNC open up a lead they would not relinquish. Even against Oklahoma, he was the Heels leading scorer with 19 points. But would UNC have won that game if they weren't able to get the lead on the Sooners? Maybe, but it would have been much closer than the final ended up being. Why were they able to build up said lead? Because their interior defense on Blake Griffin was outstanding for the first 11 minutes of the game, holding the player of the year scoreless. That allowed the Heels to stay at home on the Sooner shooters, who were never able to get into a rhythm, starting off the game 0-15 from deep and finishing 2-19.

Blake Griffin was swarmed by UNC's front line for most of the game.
(photo credit: Matt Slocum/AP)

When it comes down to it, no one player or position is going to get you to a Final Four. Yes, having a great point guard is important, but is it necessarily more important than having a great big man? Or playing great perimeter defense? Or having great shooters?

No.

To win a national title, or even to make a Final Four, a team needs to be just that. A team. They don't even really need to be a great one. They just have to play great for four games.

As a team.

Continue reading...

AJ Price: Toughness Exemplified

Late last night, we wrote about Duke and their lack-of-toughness when discussing Seth Curry's decision to transfer to the Krzyzewskiville.

Specifically, we wrote:

Toughness is also Levance Fields knocking down two free throws with 5.5 seconds to tie Villanova, after hitting big threes to put away OK State and Xavier. Toughness is Blake Griffin getting flipped on a cheap shot by a player from Morgan State and not reacting with his fists. Toughness is Cleveland State holding on to a lead when a more talented Wake Forest team makes a run on them.

AJ Price is a perfect example of toughness. I'm not going to talk about how Price overcame an a brain aneurysm, as proved himself as a better person after trying to sell stolen lap-tops, or came back from a devastating knee injury last season.

No, I'm talking about Price's actions on the court the last two seasons.

UConn has size, UConn has athletes, but UConn only has one player that has proven the ability to create for himself and for his teammates. When UConn needs a basket, Price is who they go to.

Which brings us to Saturday night. A first half in which UConn had blown an 11 point lead was coming to a close. Price was at the top of the key, waiting to make a move to try and send the Huskies into the locker room on a high note. He was being guarded by Zaire Taylor, who decided that it would be a good idea to smile and clap in Price's face.

So what did Price do?



Shoulda been an and-1 too.

That is what I mean when I say "toughness".
Continue reading...

Are the UConn Huskies a Title Team?

Can UConn win a national title?

Your gut reaction is to say yes. I mean, this is a team that went 27-3 during the regular season, finished tied for second in the Big East, and spent a good chunk of the year ranked #1 in the country. They have wins at Louisville, at Gonzaga, and at West Virginia, not to mention W's against Wisconsin, Miami, Michigan, Villanova, Syracuse (need I go on?).

So yes, this team has the talent to win a national title.

But that's not what I asked. I asked "can this team win a national title?"

That is a different story.

The stat I didn't mention above is their record in the post season this year. Its 0-1. It looks similar to the 0-2 they went last year. And the 0-1 they went the year before that. The only guy on the UConn roster that has won a game in the post-season is Jeff Adrien. He was a role-playing freshman on a supremely talented 2006 team that barely survived their first three games before losing in the Elite 8. To George Mason.

Should I point out that if Adrien is drafted, he will be the sixth player off of that team to shake David Stern's hand?

UConn's issue is not a lack of talent. And it is far from a lack of effort. This team just doesn't have enough scorers or enough shooters. Outside of AJ Price, the entire team is "athletes".

Simply put, UConn needs more basketball players.

Which is why losing Jerome Dyson hurt them so much. Dyson was the only guy other than Price that could get his own shot. So when you have just one player that is a threat to create a shot for himself or for a teammate, you become predictable. Predictable teams are easy to stop. Especially at times when you really need to get a stop. Part of what killed the Huskies last night was their inability to get a bucket when they needed one in overtime. It has probably been beaten to death at this point, but Syracuse did not lead after regulation until Andy Rautins hit a three to kick off the sixth overtime.

That means that UConn blew leads in the first five overtimes. Think about it - how many times did UConn have a late lead in OT just to have a terrible offensive possession? How many chances did they get to win it at the end of an overtime period?

How many baskets did UConn have that made you say "wow, that was a big shot"? I can think of three - Stanley Robinson hitting a three in the first OT to give UConn a four point lead with a little more than a minute left; Scottie Haralson making a foul line jumper with 42 seconds left in the fifth OT for a 110-108 lead; and Kemba Walker's lay-up to end regulation. And that lay-up shouldn't count because it was off of a broken play.

So in seventy minutes of basketball, UConn had two baskets that were clutch. Syracuse had that in each overtime period.

As good as UConn is, I just don't see a team that has not won many big games (and none in postseason) suddenly figuring it out next week. Continue reading...

College Basketball Week in Review: Redemption Week

What We Learned This Week: Do you remember a couple of weeks ago when we told you that the Big Ten was better than people were giving them credit for? They proved it on Saturday, as three teams from the Big Ten landed big time victories over ranked teams: Michigan State beat Texas, Purdue rolled over Davidson, and Minnesota hung on against Louisville.

Those wins were huge for all three teams. Minnesota is now 10-0, and while Louisville looks like they were overrated in the preseason, it is still a win that lends some legitimacy to their undefeated record.

The wins by Purdue and Michigan State were even more important as they redeemed the preseason Big Ten favorites from a sluggish start. No one expected Minnesota to be where they are right now. If they had lost to Louisville, every writer in the country would have said "hey, these guys are getting better and Tubby Smith is doing a good job turning the program around". They weren't exactly playing under pressure.

But for Michigan State and Purdue, they are trying to defend the hype they had as top 10 teams in the preseason. If either of these teams had lost, it would have brought on an onslaught of over rated chatter.

Take a look at the Big Ten now. They should have five ranked teams come Monday (throw Ohio State and Michigan in with the previous three), and when you consider Wisconsin and Illinois, there are seven teams that can make a run at the NCAA's. Still the weakest power conference?

While it isn't quite March yet, there is still plenty of Madness to be had around the country. One thing we learned this week was that you can never assume anything until the end of a game. And even then, it may not be over. Syracuse can attest to that. As can Gonzaga.

Perhaps the toughest loss of the week happened to BYU. The Cougars dominated the Sun Devils for the entire second half, leading until a James Harden free throws put ASU ahead 76-75 with nine seconds left. On the ensuing possession, Jonathon Tavernari airballed a three, but Charles Abouo was johnny-on-the-spot for the tip-in at the buzzer.



Or was he?

The officials reviewed the play, and determined that the ball was still on Abouo's finger tips as the buzzer sounded, giving Arizona State the victory. Forgive me for rubbing it in BYU fans, but this loss is magnified when you look at BYU's schedule. They are now 10-1, but Arizona State was the first team they played of any substance. They get one more chance at a ranked opponent when they host Wake Forest in January, but Wake is excellent this year. If BYU loses to Wake, goes, say, 13-3 in the MWC but doesn't reach the tourney finals and ends up on the bubble, do they get in?

GAME OF THE WEEK:
Michigan State 67, Texas 63
Great game in Houston on Saturday. It was a defensive struggle as neither team could really put together a run. Texas was in control for most of the game (case in point, Michigan State didn't lead by more than one until a Durrell Summers jumper with 18.6 seconds left). An 8-2 spurt by the 'Horns on three straight Connor Atchley jumpers put them up five with 12:49 remaining. Michigan State battled back to take a 56-55 lead on a Goran Suton and-one. The teams traded scores until this series with under a minute left:



Michigan State would miss a front-end, but Justin Mason threw up a three that badly missed before two Spartan free throws with .1 on the clock ended it.

As I said before, a huge win for the Spartans. They were widely considered a top 10 team in the pre-season, and picked by many to reach the Final Four. The biggest reason for this seeming resurgence is the return of Suton. He had knee surgery a few weeks ago and still is not back to 100%, but it is clear why he is so important for the Spartans. He is so good at cutting to the basket and sliding to the rim off of screens, which is an effective weapon for the Spartans because they have a ton of guys that can put the ball on the floor. I only got to see the last 11:00 of the game, but in that span there were three times the Spartans found Suton near the rim for a bucket. He finished with 18 points on 7-8 shooting.

The other big story of this game was the defense that was played on AJ Abrams. Travis Walton did a tremendous job following him through and around screens and getting a hand up when Abrams shot. There may not be a player with a quicker release in the country than Abrams, and he still did not get many looks at the rim.

CO-PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
AJ Price, UConn and Tony Crocker, Oklahoma
Sticking with the redemption theme, both of these guys have played way below expectations so far this year. For Crocker, it was a 26 point performance against VCU where he finally found his stroke from deep, hitting 5-of-6 from beyond the arc. It was more than the fact that he was just making shots, it was that he was making them at crucial moments. VCU was up 32-31 near the end of the first half when Crocker converted an and-one to give OU the lead. He then hit two more threes before the end of the half, and another two triples as the Sooners opened up a 63-46 lead early in the second. In a game when Blake Griffin struggled (18 and 8 in foul-plagued 26 minutes), it was a good sign for Oklahoma that Crocker was able to break out of his slump. If Crocker can return to the 42% shooter from last year, and OU can surround the Brothers Griffin with him, Cade Davis, and Willie Warren (all better than average shooters) it will open up a lot of space on the interior.

AJ Price has struggled all season with confidence in his surgically repaired knee. You want evidence? I'll give you evidence. Last season, he was getting to the line 4.5 times a game and using his penetration the create shots for himself and teammates. Prior to this game, he took 11 free throws in eight games (making just four) and was averaging just 4.0 apg (down from 5.8). He was playing so poorly and so timidly that Calhoun was ready to start Kemba Walker over him against Stony Brook. But in the Gonzaga game, the old Price returned. He finished with 24 points and 10 assists, hitting big shot after big shot (including a three to send it to OT). His penetration, which created open shots and lay-ups for his team, is a major reason why Gonzaga had to get out of the zone which had slowed the Huskies down. I think it is safe to say that UConn is the second best team in the country on paper, but without AJ Price playing up to his ability, this is not a team that can make the Final Four. But if this game can help Price restore confidence in his knee and continue to drive into the paint, then this is a team that has a shot of bringing home the title.

TEAM OF THE WEEK:
Minnesota
Playing for the first time in ten days, Minnesota picked up their biggest win in recent memory as they remained undefeated after surprising Louisville. It is a big win for the Gophers because prior to the Louisville game, their best wins consisted of Cornell, UVA and North Dakota State. What's more impressive is how they are doing it. This isn't exactly a roster overflowing with talent. Unless you are from Minnesota, I doubt you have heard of any of these guys outside of Blake Hoffarber (for this and this) and Ralph Sampson III (for, well, his father). They have nine guys averaging between 5.0 and 12.8 ppg, eight different players have started, and three of their significant contributors have missed a total of nine games. This is a balanced squad that plays some tough defense (opponents score 61.8 ppg and shoot 38%) and really seems to buy into a team mentality. It's nice to see Tubby Smith doing well.

MATCH-UPS OF THE WEEK:
12/23 - Butler @ Xavier: Xavier came back down to earth a little bit on Saturday, but is still very good, while Butler has been flying under the radar a bit this year. Expect a defensive battle.

12/23 - Texas @ Wisconsin: This game held much more intrigue a few weeks ago, but the Badgers are still a solid defensive team that will be tough enough to handle Texas inside.

12/23 - Kansas @ Arizona: Would be a huge win for either team as they both look destined for the bubble.

12/27 - West Virginia @ Ohio State: Ohio State will be without David Lighty, but West Virginia has yet to really play up to there potential. Continue reading...