Louisville at Georgetown:
Why Louisville Can Win - Tenacious defense. Louisville plays great pressure defense, in both the half-court and the full-court. Georgetown's guards have been shaky this year against pressure, epitomized by the 21 turnovers against Marquette (a team not known for their defense), with 12 of those coming from Jonathon Wallace, Jessie Sapp, Austin Freeman, and Jeremiah Rivers. I have been very critical of Georgetown's quartet of guards this year, perhaps overly so as they all can shoot and are solid defenders. If they struggled against against Marquette's ball pressure, what is going to happen against a Cardinals team that hangs its hat on their defense.
Why Georgetown Can Win - Roy Hibbert. David Padgett, Derrick Caracter, and Juan Palacios are all tough inside, but they are a bit undersized (Padgett is listed at 6'11", but is probably closer to 6'9"). The Cardinals tend to get out on the wings, overplaying the passing lanes and pressuring the ball, which should create a lot of space for Hibbert to work. I am not a huge fan of Hibbert, but when he is isolated on the block he is tough to stop 1-on-1, especially when he has a height advantage. He has a sweeping hook that he can hit consistently with both hands. And if the Cardinals decide to double him or slough off perimeter players, Hibbert is smart enough and a good enough passer to find the open man.Most Intriguing Match-up - Forwards. Earl Clark and Terrence Williams of Louisville and DaJuan Summers and Patrick Ewing Jr. of Georgetown are all big, athletic forwards that are very skilled - all four can handle the ball, shoot the three, and are skilled passers offensively and can defend on the perimeter and in the post. It should be great to watch.
Who Will Win - Georgetown. I love Louisville. There may not be a team that has played as well as they have in the last month, but I can tell you from experience (I was in attendance for the UConn game there, and will be there on Saturday) that the Verizon Center has a great atmosphere and should be sold out and rocking on Saturday. I think the Georgetown guards handle the pressure at home, and Georgetown shoots the heck out of the ball en route to the Big East title. Did I just pick the hated Hoyas? Kill me now.
UNC at Duke:
Why Duke Can Win - The three-pointer. Duke has done it all year. Since Kyle Singler can guard a post, Duke is able to go to a lineup where every on their team has perimeter skills. Opposing coaches are forced to either put a big man on someone like Singler, Gerald Henderson, or Demarcus Nelson, which is a clear mismatch, or to go small and play into Duke's game. When Duke is shooting well, which is more often than not, they are a tough team to beat, especially at home.
Why UNC Can Win - Ty Lawson. As I'm sure your well aware, Lawson did not play in the first match-up between these two. Besides the fact that UNC's fast break suffered without Lawson, Duke's game plan also changed. Duke to overplayed the Heels' three point shooters (Wayne Ellington and Danny Green), and let Hansbrough go 1-on-1 in the post, because Quentin Thomas couldn't create the same way Lawson can. Hansbrough got his to the tune of 28 and 18, but Thomas had 6 turnovers and Ellington and Green didn't hit anything the whole game. Even if Lawson isn't 100%, Duke is going to have to respect his ability to get into the lane and will have to help off of Ellington and Green.Most Intriguing Match-up - Ty Lawson and Greg Paulus. Paulus has trouble defending quick guys like Lawson, but if he is able to keep the UNC point guard in check, Duke will have a much better chance. Paulus will also have to be able to hit some shots (which he has proven he is very capable of) and protect the ball against a tough defender in Lawson.
Who Will Win - UNC. I have a sneaking suspicion that UNC has kept Lawson's minutes down in order to have him ready for this game. I expect him to play a lot of minutes, and make the difference Saturday night.
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