Louis Birdsong of George Mason Dunks on Northeastern

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Joe Alexander dunks on Stanley Robinson

This one hurts to post, but it was nasty.

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College Basketball 3/12

Now that March Madness has officially begun with the Big East Tournament kicking off in Madison Square Garden, I'm going to give a daily review of the tourney games.

GAMES OF THE DAY
Dayton 63, St. Louis 62 OT
Marcus Johnson scored 8 of his 16 points in overtime, including the game winning basket with 32 seconds left, as Dayton, the #8 seed, held off St. Louis, the #9 seed. St. Louis came back from a 49-38 deficit with 6:29 left in regulation, tying the game on a three-pointer with 51 seconds left. In overtime, Danny Brown, who led the Billikens with 24 points, had a three-point play with 50 seconds left in overtime to give St. Louis a one point lead, and setting the stage for Johnson's shot. Brian Roberts, Dayton's leading scorer and 1st team A-10 player, was held to five. Dayton advances to play Xavier.

Charlotte 75, Rhode Island 73
Rhode Island, who took a five point lead into halftime, led for the entire second half until Charlie Coley, a 53% free throw shooter, hit two to tie the game at 73 with 37.7 seconds left. After a moving screen call against Kaheim Seawright with 8.2 seconds left, Charlotte's Michael Gerrity was fouled by Keith Cothran on a questionable call with .3 seconds on the clock. Gerrity hit both, and the #6 49ers knocked off the #11 Rams. Charlotte advances to take on UMass.

PLAYER OF THE DAY
Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
Cincinnati lost to Pitt, 70-64, but the game never would have been that close without the phenomenal performance of Vaughn. He went for 30 points and 6 assists, including 23 in the second half. At one point, he scored 20 consecutive points for the Bearcats, keeping them in it down the stretch with a combination of three-pointers and acrobatic shots in the lane. All told, he scored 22 of Cinci's last 24 points.

TEAM OF THE DAY
Villanova
With all due respect to Colorado State's women's team (they were 4-27, 0-16 heading in the quarters of the MWC tourney where they knocked off #1 seed Utah, who was 27-4, 16-0 on the year), Villanova gets the nod for team of the day after they blew out Syracuse in what was essentially a NCAA Tournament elimination game. It looked as if Syracuse would run away with it early, leading 28-19 with just over a minute left in the first half, but Villanova scored the last 8 points of the half, and then proceeded to catch fire in the second half hitting 8 of 10 three's. Scottie Reynolds led the Wildcats with 22 points and 6 assists, and Corey Stokes had a career high 18 on 4-8 shooting from deep, including two from well beyond NBA range. The loss burst the Syracuse bubble, while Villanova looks to avenge a loss to Georgetown on a very questionable call. The Wildcats can take themselves off the bubble with a victory today. Continue reading...

Championship Week Notes

-BUBBLES BURSTING:

VCU's loss in the CAA semi's, South Alabama's loss to Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt conference tournament and San Diego's WCC conference tournament championship just cost two bubble teams spots in the NCAA tournament if you believe that South Alabama, St. Mary's and Gonzaga are all in the tournament. Are they in the tournament? Let's take a look.

St. Mary's - RPI 38, SOS 137. The Gaels have some very good wins - Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego State - and they have no bad losses - Texas, Southern Illinois, Gonzaga, San Diego X 2, Kent State. Combine that with their non-conference RPI of 17 and SOS of 31, and they're in.

Gonzaga - RPI 30, SOS 94. The same story as St. Mary's. A number of quality wins - UConn, St. Mary's, St. Joseph's, Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky - and no bad losses - Texas Tech, Tennessee, Washington State, Oklahoma, St. Mary's, San Diego, Memphis. Winning a competitive WCC (at least at the top) also will go a long way. Based on name power alone, the 'Zags are in.

South Alabama - RPI 37, SOS 127. They beat Mississippi State and San Diego, which keeps looking better, and swept Western Kentucky. They had close losses to Mississippi (buzzer beater) and Vanderbilt (2OT). Argue all you want about "good" losses helping teams out, but the committee considers it.

Virginia Commonwealth - RPI 54, SOS 155. VCU is in a much tougher spot. They missed against Miami and Arkansas in nonconference play, but they did beat Houston and Maryland. Their only hope was that all the conference tourney favorites win out, and since that didn't happen, it looks like they will be one of the odd men out.

Teams that still needed to play their way into the tourney (Ohio State, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon) just had their margin of error erased. Bubble teams better hope and pray that Butler, Memphis, Kent State, and Xavier win their conference tourney's.


-INDIANA:

This is not the same Indiana team that was coached by Kelvin Sampson. They barely beat Ohio State and Northwestern and lost to Penn State and Michigan State (by 30). At least six players, including Big Ten player of the year DJ White, skipped practices after Dan Dakich was named Interim Head Coach (reportedly, the team wanted assistant Ray McCallum to be named interim coach). JaMarcus Ellis was suspended for the Penn State game for mouthing off to coaches. In the last five games, it doesn't even look like Eric Gordon is trying - it seems like he has resigned himself to the fact that he will be leaving Indiana for the NBA after this year and is trying to get there without injury.

The Hoosiers are a shell of their former selves. It's too bad, because this team could have gone a long way riding Gordon and White.


-OFFICIATING:

The terrible season of officiating in college basketball continued this past weekend as UCLA was handed two victories:

Against Stanford:

And against Cal:

Now I understand that, as both Cal and Stanford blew big leads to the Bruins, they shouldn't have been in the position to have a missed call by a ref affect the game this much, but the fact of the matter is that both of these games were decided on very close calls, that easily could have (read should have) gone the other way. Continue reading...

ACC Tournament

Bracket

#8 Wake Forest vs. #9 Florida State
Winner plays #1 North Carolina

#5 Miami vs. #12 NC State
Winner plays #4 Virginia Tech

#7 Georgia Tech vs. #10 Virginia
Winner plays #2 Duke

#6 Maryland vs. #11 Boston College
Winner plays #3 Clemson

Favorites Duke and UNC. Could this be more obvious? The two best teams in the conference and in the country. Hopefully we will see round 3 of the rivalry in the finals.

Sleepers - Wake Forest and Virginia. I really like the Demon Deacons this year. Led by two freshman, Jeff Teague and James Johnson, this is a talented, but inexperienced team. They have beaten Duke this year, as well as BYU and Miami, and are good enough that they can get hot and win four in a row. Virginia is now finally healthy with Singletary fully recovered from his hip pointer and Mikalauskas back. Virginia has lost three ACC games this season in OT, and three others by one or two points. This team is a better team than their record indicates.

Most Intriguing Match-up - If Maryland can hold seed against BC, they take on the Clemson Tigers, to whom they blew a 20 point lead last Sunday - and with it went their at large chances.

My Pick - UNC. Against Duke, they showed that they can play some defense - what most critics said was the achilles heel of their team. Oh, and Ty Lawson will only get healthier. Continue reading...

Big XII Tournament

Bracket

#8 Texas Tech vs. #9 Oklahoma State
Winner plays #1 Texas

#5 Baylor vs. #12 Colorado
Winner plays #4 Oklahoma

#7 Nebraska vs. #10 Missouri
Winner plays #2 Kansas

#6 Texas A&M vs. #11 Iowa State
Winner plays #3 Kansas State

Favorite - Kansas. I know Texas got the one seed (via the 72-69 win the Horns had) but as Kansas is ranked higher, has a better record, and by all accounts is the better team and likely in position to get a one seed. Kansas has one of the most balanced attacks in the country. From big front line (Sasha Kaun, Darrell Arthur, and Darnell Jackson) to their stellar guard play (Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, and Sherron Collins), Kansas has all the parts you are looking for.

Sleeper - Watch out for Baylor at the five seed. Their final record ended up mediocre, but when you factor in a streak where they lost six of seven in the middle of the conference season, their record doesn't look so bad. They won four of their last five (including one over Kansas State) and beat Winthrop and Notre Dame in rout to winning the Paradise Jam. They have a quintet of good guards, led my Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn, and Kevin Rogers can more than hold is own inside.

Most Intriguing Match-up - It's too bad Baylor and Texas A&M can't meet up until the finals (the last two times these teams played, there was a five OT game and a hard pick that knocked down Baylor guard Tweety Carter and almost ended up with the benches clearing). If all seeds hold to form, we will get to see Kansas-Kansas State round 3 in the semis.

My Pick - Texas. I love DJ Augustin. If it wasn't for some freshman in Manhattan, KS he would be the runaway candidate for conference player of the year. Damion James, AJ Abrams, and Conor Atchley are all perfect for their roles on this team. I think the 'Horns upset Kansas in the finals. Continue reading...

Big Ten Tournament

Bracket

#8 Iowa vs. #9 Michigan
Winner plays #1 Wisconsin

#4 Michigan State vs. #5 Ohio State

#7 Penn State vs. #10 Illinois
Winner plays #2 Purdue

#6 Minnesota vs. #11 Northwestern
Winner plays #3 Indiana

Favorite - Wisconsin. The Badgers have had a great season - they went 24-4, with their only losses being to Duke, Marquette, and Purdue twice. They have a formidable front line and, as always, play very solid defense. They struggle finding a consistent scorer on offense at times, but they have enough good players and an effective system so they can get by. Wisconsin runs into problems when they face teams like Duke (lost by 24) and Marquette that are guard heavy, but as the Big Ten doesn't really have any teams like that, Wisconsin has a great chance to win this tournament and possibly earn a one seed.

Sleeper - Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have had a pretty successful season, 18-12, in their first year under Tubby Smith. The combination of a solid front line in Dan Coleman and Spencer Tollackson and the leadership of senior guard Lawrence McKenzie, the Gophers have enough firepower to make a run. They also caught a break in the bracket - Northwestern in the first round, and if they advance they get the imploding Indiana Hoosiers in the second round.

Most Intriguing Match-up - Michigan State vs. Ohio State. They just played on Sunday, where the Buckeyes knocked off the struggling Spartans to keep their Tournament hopes alive. Ohio State probably needs to get this one to get in, especially with San Diego winning the WCC and South Alabama losing in the semis of the Sun Belt.

My Pick - Wisconsin, mostly by default. I get less and less impressed with Michigan State every time i see them play, Indiana is collapsing as we speak, and I don't think Purdue, with their inexperience, can beat Wisconsin three times in a season, especially when the third game will be the Big Ten Championship game. Continue reading...

SEC Tournament

Bracket

E5 South Carolina vs. W4 LSU
Winner plays E1 Tennessee

W6 Auburn vs. E3 Vanderbilt
Winner plays W2 Arkansas

W5 Alabama vs. E4 Florida
Winner plays W1 Mississippi State

E6 Georgia vs. W3 Ole Miss
Winner plays E2 Kentucky

Favorite - Tennessee. The Volunteers have been at the top of the polls all season. They won the SEC East by two games over Kentucky, and have a pretty easy path to the semis. The SEC is not very deep this year, and Tennessee is loaded.

Sleepers - Ole Miss. The Rebels looked very good before the conference season started, but went through a stretch where they lost eight of ten in conference. They won their last three, however, including a win over Arkansas. They are probably going to need to beat Kentucky and reach the semis to make the NCAA Tournament. The Rebels do have a great combo in PG Chris Warren and C Dwayne Curtis, and have proven that they can beat tourney teams (South Alabama, New Mexico, Winthrop, Clemson), but they have struggled mightly away from home. Let's see if they can change that trend.

Most Intriguing Match-up - If Vanderbilt can handle Auburn in the first round, they get Arkansas in the second round. Vanderbilt is in a similar situation to Mississippi as neither of them has proven they can win on the road, but winning in the tournament can go a long way to convincing the committee how good they are. It also would create an interesting match-up between Shan Foster, the 6'7" shooter, and Patrick Beverly, 6'1" scorer that averages 6.7 rpg.

My Pick - Kentucky. The Wildcats have looked very good even without Patrick Patterson after losing to Tennessee by 3, and then beating South Carolina and Florida. Continue reading...

Pac-10 Tournament

Bracket

#7 Arizona vs. #10 Oregon State
Winner plays #2 Stanford

#3 Washington State vs. #6 Oregon

#4 USC vs. #5 Arizona State

#8 Washington vs. #9 California
Winner plays #1 UCLA

Favorite - UCLA. Despite the questionable calls, UCLA swept Stanford and Cal last weekend to win the loaded Pac-10 by three games. UCLA has made back-to-back final fours, but this may be their best team out of the three with the addition of Pac-10 Player of the Year Kevin Love and the breakout season of Russell Westbrook.

Sleepers - Arizona and California. Arizona has had to deal with so much this year, from injuries to the Lute Olsen saga, and as a result has had a pretty disappointing season. But they are loaded with talent - led by Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger - and need to win a couple games to earn an at-large bid. Cal is not quite as talented, but had UCLA beat on Saturday. This team will go as far as Ryan Anderson takes them.

Most Intriguing Match-up - When (if) Arizona beats Oregon State, they match-up with Stanford in the second round. With San Diego getting the WCC bid, and South Alabama losing in the Sun Belt tourney, the number of at-large bids are shrinking, and with Arizona sitting squarely on the bubble, they will need that win against Stanford. It would also be interesting to see Cal get another shot at UCLA in the second round.

My Pick - UCLA. I really like Stanford and Brook Lopez, but I think that the Bruins are just too good this year and have too much experience in tournament play. Continue reading...

Big East Tournament

Bracket

#8 Villanova vs. #9 Syracuse
Winner plays #1 Georgetown

#5 West Virginia vs. #12 Providence
Winner plays #4 UConn

#7 Pitt vs. #10 Cincinnati
Winner plays #2 Louisville

#6 Marquette vs. #11 Seton Hall
Winner plays #3 Notre Dame

Favorites - Georgetown and Louisville. On the last Saturday of the regular season, Georgetown beat Louisville by three at home in what was essentially the Big East regular season championship game. No team in the country was playing better than Louisville in the last month of the season as they got healthy and gelled as a team, but Georgetown has been the model of consistency this season, winning game after game but never blowing anyone out.

Sleepers - Syracuse and Providence. Two teams decimated by injuries this year. Jim Boeheim has already proven that he can take a team on a run through the conference tournament, doing it as a #9 seed in 2006. they have already beaten Georgetown (the second round match-up) this season, and with guys like Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, and Paul Harris, they have a number of players that can carry the 'Cuse. Providence was picked as a top-8 team preseason, but lost Sharaud Curry for the season, and have had numerous other players miss game time. As their sweep of UConn proves (the team they would face in the second round) they can beat anyone in the conference on any given night.

Most Intriguing Match-up - Villanova vs. Syracuse. This is almost an elimination game for these two teams. Syracuse may be in right now, but a first round win would go a long way to shoring up that bid, especially with Villanova being one of those bubble teams they're battling with. 'Nova probably has to beat Syracuse and Georgetown to get in

My Pick - UConn. Call me a homer all you want. I really think the Huskies have it this year. They get the first round bye, they play tough D, they don't rely on jump shots as much as other teams so tired legs won't have as much of an affect (actually, it may even help as UConn's best offense tends to be throw it up, and go get the rebound), and I love AJ Price down the stretch of close games. Sticking with the Huskies. Continue reading...

Conference USA Tournament

Bracket:

#7 Tulsa vs. #10 East Carolina
Winner plays #2 UAB

#6 UTEP vs. #11 SMU
Winner plays #3 Houston

#8 Marshall vs. #9 Tulane
Winner plays #1 Memphis

#5 Southern Miss vs. #12 Rice
Winner plays #4 UCF

Favorite - Memphis. Best team in the conference, maybe the best in the country.

Sleepers - The knock on the C-USA all year has been the lack of quality teams behind Memphis. UAB and Houston, both solid teams that have a chance to earn an at-large bid if they can make a run in the tournament, are probably the only two teams with a legitimate chance to knock off the Tigers. UTEP also has the ability to make a run, led by Stefon Jackson, the conference's leading scorer at 24.4 ppg.

Most Intriguing Match-up - If UTEP can get by SMU, then the Miners will take on Houston pitting Robert McKiver , who averages 23.3 ppg and put up the NCAA season high 52 earlier this season, and Stefon Jackson, two on the country's best scorers, against each other other.

My Pick - I was going to pick UAB to win the auto-bid - until they lost to Memphis by 38 on Saturday. Continue reading...

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament

BRACKET:

#8 Dayton vs. #9 St. Louis
Winner Plays #1 Xavier

#5 St. Joseph's vs. #12 Fordham
Winner Plays #4 Richmond

#7 LaSalle vs. #10 Duquense
Winner Plays #2 Temple

#6 Charlotte vs. #11 Rhode Island
Winner Plays #3 UMass

Favorite - Xavier. The Musketeers have been atop the A-10 all season, posting a 14-2 record in conference. Already a guaranteed lock for a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament, a win of the conference tourney could get Xavier as high as a two seed. This season Xavier has used a dominating combination of experience, balance and depth en route to a 26-5 record and a top ten ranking.

Sleepers - This year's tournament is full of them - from Rhode Island, a team that beat Syracuse, UAB, and Providence, at #11 to Dayton, who knocked off Louisville and Pitt when healthy, at #8. But I like #5 St. Joe's as a sleeper pick. They get Fordham in the first round, and face Richmond in the second round. Remember this St. Joe's squad is the only team to beat Xavier since mid-January. I think the A-10, as much as any conference, is primed for upsets this year. There are five teams (URI, UMass, Dayton, St. Joe's, and Temple) that have at-large hopes, and all five really could use a couple wins here to improve their standing with the committee.

Most Intriguing Match-up - If Dayton can get by St. Louis, they get Xavier in the second round. Dayton and Xavier were expected to compete for the conference crown, but after a rash of injuries (including to second leading scorer Chris Wright), Dayton's record in conference was a disappointing 8-8. If they can beat Xavier, then that could be enough for them to earn an at-large bid.

My Pick - Xavier. I know, its a cop-out, but they are just too good this year. Continue reading...

College Basketball 3/9 - Conference Tourney Time

GAME OF THE WEEK
Bucknell 87, Navy 86 3 OT
John Griffin scored 21 points for Bucknell, but none were bigger than the 40-ft. three pointer he hit at the end of the third overtime to give Bucknell the win over Navy in the first round of the Patriot League tournament. Bucknell was down 45-28 with 15 minutes left in the game before going on a 22-5 run to tie the game at 50. Navy regained the lead, but Bucknell sent the game to overtime on a Todd O'Brien lay-up. At the end of the second overtime, Navy's Kaleo Kina hit a three with 16 seconds left to send the game to the third over time. At the end of the third overtime, Navy's T.J. Topercer put the Midshipmen up by two with a tip-in with three seconds left before Griffin took the in-bounds, dribbled up the left side of the court, and banked in the game winner.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Shan Foster, Vanderbilt
Foster averaged 31.5 ppg in the Commodore's 1-1 week, shooting 12-23 from deep. But it was Foster's performance in Vanderbilt's 86-85 overtime win over Mississippi State. In the first 30 minutes of the game, Foster had 13 points, shooting 0-6 from three point range. But in the last 15 minutes, Foster scored 29 points, including hitting his last nine three pointers. In the last :33 seconds of regulation, Foster hit two three's to lead Vandy back from a five point deficit. Foster then scored eights points in the last :48 seconds of overtimes, including a three with 1 seconds left to win the game.

TEAMS OF THE WEEK
Syracuse and Ohio State
Both Syracuse and Ohio State swept their games this week, putting themselves in good position to earn at-large bids. Syracuse won at Seton Hall and then beat Marquette at home by 15. They get Villanova in the first round of the Big East tournament in what seems to be an elimination. Ohio State had an even better week, beating both Purdue and Michigan State at home. Ohio State can all but lock up a bid with a win over Michigan State in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.

No Match-ups this week. Instead I'm going to do a preview of the major conference tournaments. Continue reading...

Danny Green Dunk on Greg Paulus

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Championship Saturday

With the table set by UCLA clinching the Pac-10 regular season title in Thursday night's thriller, we head to Saturday's two de-facto championship games: Louisville visiting the Verizon Center in DC to take on Georgetown, and UNC taking the eight mile trip down Tobacco Road to take on Duke at Cameron. Let's take a look at the two games.


Louisville at Georgetown:

Why Louisville Can Win - Tenacious defense. Louisville plays great pressure defense, in both the half-court and the full-court. Georgetown's guards have been shaky this year against pressure, epitomized by the 21 turnovers against Marquette (a team not known for their defense), with 12 of those coming from Jonathon Wallace, Jessie Sapp, Austin Freeman, and Jeremiah Rivers. I have been very critical of Georgetown's quartet of guards this year, perhaps overly so as they all can shoot and are solid defenders. If they struggled against against Marquette's ball pressure, what is going to happen against a Cardinals team that hangs its hat on their defense.

Why Georgetown Can Win - Roy Hibbert. David Padgett, Derrick Caracter, and Juan Palacios are all tough inside, but they are a bit undersized (Padgett is listed at 6'11", but is probably closer to 6'9"). The Cardinals tend to get out on the wings, overplaying the passing lanes and pressuring the ball, which should create a lot of space for Hibbert to work. I am not a huge fan of Hibbert, but when he is isolated on the block he is tough to stop 1-on-1, especially when he has a height advantage. He has a sweeping hook that he can hit consistently with both hands. And if the Cardinals decide to double him or slough off perimeter players, Hibbert is smart enough and a good enough passer to find the open man.

Most Intriguing Match-up - Forwards. Earl Clark and Terrence Williams of Louisville and DaJuan Summers and Patrick Ewing Jr. of Georgetown are all big, athletic forwards that are very skilled - all four can handle the ball, shoot the three, and are skilled passers offensively and can defend on the perimeter and in the post. It should be great to watch.

Who Will Win - Georgetown. I love Louisville. There may not be a team that has played as well as they have in the last month, but I can tell you from experience (I was in attendance for the UConn game there, and will be there on Saturday) that the Verizon Center has a great atmosphere and should be sold out and rocking on Saturday. I think the Georgetown guards handle the pressure at home, and Georgetown shoots the heck out of the ball en route to the Big East title. Did I just pick the hated Hoyas? Kill me now.


UNC at Duke:

Why Duke Can Win - The three-pointer. Duke has done it all year. Since Kyle Singler can guard a post, Duke is able to go to a lineup where every on their team has perimeter skills. Opposing coaches are forced to either put a big man on someone like Singler, Gerald Henderson, or Demarcus Nelson, which is a clear mismatch, or to go small and play into Duke's game. When Duke is shooting well, which is more often than not, they are a tough team to beat, especially at home.

Why UNC Can Win - Ty Lawson. As I'm sure your well aware, Lawson did not play in the first match-up between these two. Besides the fact that UNC's fast break suffered without Lawson, Duke's game plan also changed. Duke to overplayed the Heels' three point shooters (Wayne Ellington and Danny Green), and let Hansbrough go 1-on-1 in the post, because Quentin Thomas couldn't create the same way Lawson can. Hansbrough got his to the tune of 28 and 18, but Thomas had 6 turnovers and Ellington and Green didn't hit anything the whole game. Even if Lawson isn't 100%, Duke is going to have to respect his ability to get into the lane and will have to help off of Ellington and Green.

Most Intriguing Match-up - Ty Lawson and Greg Paulus. Paulus has trouble defending quick guys like Lawson, but if he is able to keep the UNC point guard in check, Duke will have a much better chance. Paulus will also have to be able to hit some shots (which he has proven he is very capable of) and protect the ball against a tough defender in Lawson.

Who Will Win - UNC. I have a sneaking suspicion that UNC has kept Lawson's minutes down in order to have him ready for this game. I expect him to play a lot of minutes, and make the difference Saturday night. Continue reading...

Yuba College Dunk

I have no idea who or where this school is, but that's gotta be pretty embarrassing for the dude getting jumped over.

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Ladies and Gentlemen, March Madness is HERE!!

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Sleepers and Early Exiters

With the NCAA tournament right around the corner and conference tournaments starting this week, let's take a look at what teams have cinderella potential and what favorites might fall victim to the glass slipper the first weekend.


CINDERELLAS:

Davidson: (23-6, 20-0), RPI 44, SOS 132

Season Summary - The Wildcats swung and missed in their marquee non-conference games against, going 0-5 against UCLA, UNC, Duke, NC State and Charlotte, which means they may need to win the Southern Conference tournament to reach the Big Dance (they did go undefeated in conference play, so the auto bid is well within reach).

Why They Can Win - If you include last year's loss to Maryland in the NCAA's, Davidson has hung tough with their last six major conference opponents - none of the losses by more than 12. They lost by four to UNC, six to Duke, and twelve to UCLA this season. Stephon Curry is a phenomenal scorer (25.3 ppg) and has proven he has the ability to carry this team, regardless of the competition he is facing. Can they finally pull out a victory against a quality opponent?

South Alabama: (23-5, 16-2), RPI 29, SOS 131

Season Summary - They beat Mississippi State and during non-conference play, and just missed upsetting Mississippi and Vanderbilt (both three point losses). Won the regular season Sun Belt crown by sweeping fellow bubble dweller Western Kentucky. They may have already locked up an at-large bid, but probably want to at least get to the conference finals just to be safe.

Why They Can Win - Outstanding guard play. Daon Merritt (5'8") and Dominic Tilford (5'10") are both lighting quick penetrators, with Tilford being more of a scorer (2nd on team at 13 ppg) and Merritt the playmaker (leads conference at 5.5 apg). The best of the bunch is 6'4" Demetric Bennett, who averages 19.9 ppg and 6 rpg. And they have already proven they can knock off the big boys.

Kent State: (24-6, 12-3), RPI 32, SOS 134

Season Summary - If they get the season sweep on the road against Akron on Sunday, they will wrap up the MAC regular season title. Wins against Illinois State and George Mason are nice, but they got smacked in their marquee non-conference games against UNC and Xavier.

Why They Can Win - They are a tough defensive team, giving up just 62.3 ppg, anchored by big man Haminn Quaintance in the middle, who leads the conference with 2.1 bpg. After bouncing around for three years (one year at Siena, one year at Redlands CC, one year sitting out), Al Harris seems to have finally found a home at KSU. He leads the team at 14.2 ppg and 4.2 apg. And they know how to win - this marks the tenth straight season with at least 20 wins.

Arizona: (16-12, 7-9), RPI 23, SOS 1

Season Summary - It has been an up-and-down year for the Wildcats, starting with the leave of absence from Head Coach Lute Olsen. They are battle tested after playing a murderous schedule this year, but it may be a moot point if they don't sweep the Oregon schools this week or have a good showing in the Pac-10 tourney. After starting conference play 5-3, they have dropped six of their last eight.

Why They Can Win - This team is loaded with talent. Freshman Jerryd Bayless is averaging 20.4 ppg and 4.3 apg despite being banged up this year and can fill it up with the best of them, as evidenced by four 30 point games. Chase Budinger (17.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Jordan Hill (12.9 ppg, 8.0 rpg) are both very athletic forwards and difficult match-ups.

Virginia Commonwealth: (23-6, 15-3), RPI 43, SOS 146

Season Summary - They won the CAA by three games, which is a statement considering how good that league has been. They also had some nice non-conference wins including Maryland and Houston. They may be NIT bound, however, if they don't at least reach the finals of the CAA tournament.

Why They Can Win - Eric Maynor. If his performance last season in the NCAA's against Duke isn't enough to convince you, the numbers he's put up this year (17.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 5.3 apg) should. VCU is also a very tough defensive team, allowing more than 70 points just three times this season.

Illinois State: (21-8, 13-5), RPI 36, SOS 80

Season Summary - The Redbirds overcame a stretch where they lost four of nine in conference to finish in second place in the tough MVC. Their only good (read mediocre) non-conference wins came against Cincinnati and Wright State, so they probably need to win Arch Madness to reach the NCAA's. But Valley teams have been tough outs in recent years.

Why They Can Win - Although the MVC may only get one or two teams into the Big Dance this year, it is more a result of the extreme parody within the conference than the lack of quality teams. Sophomore Osiris Eldridge leads this bunch with averages of 16.3 ppg and 5.6 rpg.


EARLY EXITERS

Duke (25-3, 12-2), RPI 4, SOS 15

Season Summary - The Blue Devils have had a very good year, currently sitting just a half game behind UNC in the ACC standings. They had some pretty very wins in non-conference play against Wisconsin and Marquette, and won the first match-up with the Tar Heels. They are a great three point shooting team, and have looked dominant at time (just ask Wisconsin)

Why They May Lose - They rely too much on three's and do not have an post presence defensively. In their win against UNC, the Heels were without point guard Ty Lawson, and since that win the Dookies have struggled a bit, losing two in a row and nearly losing two more (NC State and Maryland). If they run into a team like Pitt, one that can defend all over the court and has some big bodies inside, they may be heading home early again. We will know a lot more about Duke after their rematch with UNC on Saturday.

Vanderbilt: (24-5, 9-5), RPI 10, SOS 37

Season Summary - After sputtering to a 2-4 start to open the SEC season, the Commodores have come on strong, winning seven in a row before falling to Arkansas, including a victory over then #1 Tennessee. Shan Foster and AJ Ogilvy provide as dominant of a 1-2 punch there is in the country, and until Saturday's loss they seemed to be peeking at the right time.

Why They May Lose - Despite all their successes, Vanderbilt has struggled mightly away from Nashville this year, going just 4-5, and just 2-5 in conference play. Ogilvy also has a tendency to get into foul trouble, playing a combined 33 minutes in their two games with Tennessee and just 34 minutes in the 2OT loss to Kentucky.

Georgetown (24-4, 14-3), RPI 8, SOS 54

Season Summary - Georgetown has had a great year, currently tied for first in the Big East with Louisville, whom they play to close out the regular season on Saturday. They are big up front with Roy Hibbert, DaJuan Summers, and Patrick Ewing Jr., and they play a very deliberate style that can throw teams out of sync.

Why They May Lose - Georgetown does not have great guard play. Jonathon Wallace can knock three's, but is slow defensively and has been turning the ball over a lot this year. Austin Freeman and Jeremiah Rivers are decent at best. But the really story with Georgetown is how inflated their record is compared to how they have played. They could easily have five more losses in conference this year (Hibbert's three against UConn, "the foul" against Villanova, the block against West Virginia, and the late comebacks against Marquette and Syracuse). Sooner or later their luck will run out.

Drake: (23-4, 15-3), RPI 15, SOS 55

Season Summary - The feel good story of the 2007-2008 campaign, the Bulldogs came out of nowhere to win the MVC conference by two games, racking up 21 straight victories at one point. This is a team of nobody's, epitomized by point guard Adam Emmenecker. The former walk-on (who by the way is a QUADRUPLE major with a 3.97 GPA) who scored 55 career points in three seasons coming into this year, averaged 7.7 ppg and 6.6 apg to lead this team to a top 15 ranking.

Why They May Lose - They seemed to have already peaked, as teams started to figure them out down the stretch - they went 3-3 in their last six. They are similar to Duke in that they rely heavily on the three, although they do have some great shooters. They also lack size and interior strength. As much as I love teams from the MVC, this team I don't know if this squad can make the Sweet 16.

Wisconsin: (24-4, 14-2), RPI 12, SOS 44

Season Summary - They have the inside track to the Big Ten title thanks to Purdue's loss at Ohio State, with both losses coming to the Boilermakers. Their other two losses are to Duke and Marquette, both very good teams. It looks like losing Alando Tucker wasn't big of a deal. Bo Ryan just keeps on winning.

Why They May Lose - This team is not very athletic at all. Center Brian Butch has never fully grown into player the Badgers thought they were getting. Their guard play is fairly weak, and their run through the Big Ten came in a year when the conference is watered down. But I think their biggest issue is the lack of a go-to scorer. Who is going to get them a bucket when they need?


TEAMS I'M HOLDING JUDGEMENT ON

Kansas State: (18-10, 9-6), RPI 45, SOS 19

Why I Can't Figure Them Out - They have all the makings of a team that looks like primed for an early exit. They've struggled on the road, they've struggled down the stretch, and they get inconsistent play from their guards. But in case you've been living under a rock the last three months, they also have a guy named Michael Beasley, who has a very good chance of being named the player of the year. And they've beaten Kansas. I wouldn't be surprised if this team lost in the first round, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Beasley gets hot and he carries them to the Final Four.

Indiana: (24-5, 13-3), RPI 16, SOS 55

Why I Can't Figure Them Out - Earlier this season I thought that they were a Final Four team. They are so talented - Eric Gordon can put up huge numbers, DJ White is a horse in the paint, Armon Bassett is a very unselfish point guard that doubles as a dead-eye shooter, and JaMarcus Ellis and Jordan Crawford are perfect fits for their roles. That was all before Kelvin Sampson was fired. Yes, they squeaked out wins against Northwestern and Ohio State, but that was before they gave up 100 and lost by 30 to Michigan State, a team that had been having all sorts of trouble scoring. So I guess the big question is which Indiana team is going to show up? Continue reading...

What Bubble Teams Can Do The Most

As this is the last week before the conference tournaments, what bubble teams can do the most for their NCAA tournament at-large chances by winning this week.

Baylor - (19-8, 8-6) RPI 33, SOS 39
This week: Texas A&M, @ Texas Tech

Kansas State - (17-10, 8-6) RPI 42, SOS 11
This week: Colorado, @ Iowa St.

Oklahoma - (19-10, 7-7) RPI 27, SOS 8
This week: @ OK St., Mizzou

Texas A&M - (20-8, 7-7) RPI 46, SOS 89
This week: @ Baylor, Kansas
This is the log jam that is the middle of the Big XII. Depending on the way things shake out in this last week, only two of these teams could make it, or all four could make it. A&M has the best opprotunity to move up, with games against Baylor and Kansas. However, in Oklahoma, K-State, and Baylor win out, all three should earn a bid.

West Virginia - (21-9, 10-7) RPI 41, SOS 60
This week: Won vs. Pitt, @ St. John's
The win against Pitt was huge for the Mountaineers, as it gives them another solid win. If the can win in the Garden agaisnt St. John's, they will have 11 Big East wins. Pitt and Marquette, both home games, are really their only two good wins in conference.

Arizona - (16-12, 7-9) RPI 24, SOS 1
This week: @ Oregon, @ Oregon St.

Arizona St. - (18-10, 8-8) RPI 66, SOS 62
This week: @ Oregon, @ Oregon St.

Oregon - (16-12, 7-9) RPI 59, SOS 28
This week: Arizona, Arizona St.
All three of these teams are very much on the bubble, and all three really need a sweep to avoid sweating out Selection Sunday. But, if things fall a certain way aka if winless Pac-10 cellar dwellar Oregon St. can swing an upset, all three of these teams may be going to the NIT.

Virginia Tech - (17-11, 8-6) RPI 56, SOS 52
This week: Wake Forest, @ Clemson
With average computer numbers and a weak non-conference schedule, the Hokies may already be finished. But if they win out, that gives them 10 ACC wins, and five in a row to end the season - including two (@Maryland, @Clemson) over fellow bubble dwellers.

Arkansas - (19-9, 8-6) RPI 38, SOS 40
This week: @ Ole Miss, Auburn
Two very winnable games for the razorbacks. If they get them both, they're almost guaranteed a bid.

UMass - (19-9, 8-6) RPI 39, SOS 47
This week: LaSalle, @ GW
Despite a slow start in A-10 play, UMass has won four in a row. In they can get these last two and go to 10-6 in the A-10, that should be enough to get them in, although a split may be enough.

St. Jospeh's - (17-10, 8-6)
This week: Xavier, @ Dayton
The Hawks are a little worse off that UMass, however if they can get a win against Xavier (who hasn't lost since mid-January), that should be enough. Winning at Dayton would also be huge.

UAB - (21-8, 11-3) RPI 49, SOS 112
This week: Tulsa, @ Memphis
The current Bracketology has UAB as one of the last four teams in the dance, but winning out, which would include getting a W in Memphis, would secure a spot.


Kentucky - (16-11, 10-4) RPI 52, SOS 9
This week: @ South Carolina, Florida
What was already a very intruiging bubble team just got a painful twist of fate - Patrick Patterson is out for the year. But if they can manage to win out, they will be sitting at 12-4, no worse than third in the SEC. I'm glad I don't have to decide that one.

Ohio State - (17-12, 8-8) RPI 55, SOS 30
This week: Purdue, Michigan State
Ohio State is pretty far out there on the bubble, currently sitting tied for fifth in what looks like a four-bid Big Ten. But they do get two of those four teams - at home - this week. They must sweep if they want any shot of sneaking in on Selection Sunday. Continue reading...

Jerome Lane Breaks The Backboard

An old school dunk, I know, but given the fact that it was on someone trying to take a charge and he shattered the backboard with ONE HAND, this may be the greatest dunk of all-time.

Continue reading...