Thursday, June 25, 2009

Tyler Hansbrough better hope he doesn't go in the lottery

Tyler Hansbrough is one of the best college basketball players of our generation. He has a real shot of going in the lottery in tonight's NBA Draft. But questions abound as to whether he will ever be a successful pro - he's too short, he's not athletic enough, he doesn't have enough post moves, he can't defend.

How about this one: he's white.

Now, before you go all Jason Whitlock on me, I did some research and put together a list of all the white, collegiate players picked in the top 14 picks (equivalent to this year's lottery) in the last 20 years. Out of that group, just three guys (Christian Laettner, Tom Gugliotta, and Wally Szczerbiak) made an all-star team, and each of them made it just once (although, Kevin Love might change that).

So what point am I trying to make here? Well, I don't know. I'm nowhere near mathematically proficient enough to figure out if the percentages significantly differ between white lottery picks and black lottery picks being busts. But what I can tell you is that the info after the jump is pretty interesting ... to me at least.

(Big h/t to BIAH contributor Scott Klatzkin)

2008:

  • #5 Kevin Love - 11.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg
  • #8 Joe Alexander - 4.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg
Picked after them: Courtney Lee (22), Mario Chalmers (34)

2007:
  • #10 Spencer Hawes - 8.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg (11.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg in '08-'09)
Picked after him: Thaddeus Young (12), Rodney Stuckey (15), Rudy Fernandez (24), Aaron Brooks (26)

2006:
  • #3 Adam Morrison - 8.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg (11.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg in '06-'07)
  • #11 JJ Redick - 5.5 ppg, 38% 3PT (6.0 ppg in '08-'09)
Picked after them: #6 Brandon Roy, #21 Rajon Rondo, #47 Paul Millsap

2005:
  • #1 Andrew Bogut - 11.9 ppg, 8.7 rpg (14.3 ppg, 9.8 rpg in '07-'08)
Picked after him: #3 Deron Williams, #4 Chris Paul, #10 Andrew Bynum, #17 Danny Granger

2004 (2004 was a bad year for the caucasian persuasion):
  • #10 Luke Jackson - 3.5 ppg, 59 games played (2.6 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 36 games in '05-'06)
  • #12 Robert Swift - 4.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg (6.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg in '05-'06)
  • #14 Kris Humphries - 4.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg (5.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg in '07-'08)
Picked after them: #15 Al Jefferson, #17 Josh Smith, #18 JR Smith, #20 Jameer Nelson, #26 Kevin Martin, #43 Trevor Ariza

2003 (to be fair, this is the one year where it is tough to hate on any of these picks - 2003 was a loaded draft):
  • #6 Chris Kaman - 10.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg (15.7 ppg, 12.9 rpg, 2.8 bpg in '07-'08)
  • #7 Kirk Hinrich - 13.9 ppg, 6.1 apg (16.6 ppg, 6.3 apg in '06-'07)
  • #12 Nick Collison - 8.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg (9.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg in '07-'08)
  • #14 Luke Ridnour - 9.2 ppg, 5.0 apg (11.5 ppg, 7.0 apg in '05-'06)
Picked after them: #18 David West, #29 Josh Howard, #47 Mo Williams

2002:
  • #3 Mike Dunleavy - 12.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg (19.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.5 apg in '07-'08)
Picked after him: #9 Amare Stoudamire, #10 Caron Butler, #23 Tayshaun Prince, #34 Carlos Boozer

2001:
  • #14 Troy Murphy - 11.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg (14.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 45% 3PT in '08-'09)
Picked after him: #19 Zack Randolph, #25 Gerald Wallace, #28 Tony Parker, #31 Gilbert Arenas, #34 Mehmut Okur

2000 (this draft was horrendous overall - Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer, DeMarr Johnson, Jerome Moiso, Etan Thomas, and Courtney Alexander all were lottery picks):
  • #5 Mike Miller - 13.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 40% 3PT (18.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.3 apg in '06-'07)
  • #7 Chris Mihm - 7.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg (10.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg in '05-'06)
  • #9 Joel Pryzbilla - 4.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg (6.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.3 bpg in '03-'04)
Picked after them: #8 Jamal Crawford, #16 Hedo Turkoglu, #19 Jamaal Magloire, #43 Michael Redd

1999:
  • #6 Wally Szczerbiak - 14.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg (18.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, All-Star in '01-'02)
Picked after him: #7 Rip Hamilton, #9 Shawn Marion, #16 Ron Artest, #24 Andrei Kirilenko

1998:
  • #3 Raef Lafrentz - 10.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.6 bpg (13.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg in '98-'99)
  • #7 Jason Williams - 11.4 ppg, 6.3 apg (14.8 ppg, 8.0 apg in '01-'02)
  • #12 Michael Doleac - 4.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg (7.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg in '99-'00)
Picked after them: #4 Antawn Jamison, #5 Vince Carter, #9 Dirk Nowitzki, #10 Vince Carter, #21 Ricky Davis, #25 Al Harrington, #32 Rashard Lewis, #39 Rafer Alston

1997:
  • #2 Keith Van Horn - 16.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg (21.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg in '98-'99)
  • #12 Austin Croshere - 6.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg (10.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg in '99-'00)
Picked after them: #3 Chauncey Billups, #9 Tracy McGrady, #23 Bobby Jackson, #43 Stephen Jackson

1996:
  • #11 Todd Fuller - 3.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg (4.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg in '97-'98)
Picked after him: #13 Kobe Bryant, #14 Peja Stojakovic, #15 Steve Nash, #17 Jermaine O'Neal, #20 Zydrunas Ilgauskas, #24 Derek Fisher

1995:
  • #6 Bryant Reeves - 12.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg (16.9 ppg, 7.9 rpg in '96-'97)
  • #12 Cherokee Parks - 4.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg (7.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg in '97-'98)
Picked after them: #7 Damon Stoudamire, #18 Theo Ratliff, #21 Michael Finley

1994:
  • #9 Eric Montross - 4.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg (10.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg in '94-'95)
Picked after him: #10 Eddie Jones, #13 Jalen Rose

1993:
  • #2 Shawn Bradley - 8.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.5 bpg (13.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.4 bpg in '97-'98)
  • #7 Bobby Hurley - 3.8 ppg, 3.3 apg (7.1 ppg, 6.1 apg in '93-'94)
  • #14 Scott Haskin - 2.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg (2.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg in '93-'94)
Picked after them: #3 Penny Hardaway, #4 Jamal Mashburn, #8 Vin Baker, #11 Allan Houston, #24 Sam Cassell, #37 Nick Van Exel

1992
:
  • #3 Christian Laettner - 12.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg (18.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, All-Star in '96-'97)
  • #6 Tom Gugliotta - 13.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg (20.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, All-Star in '96-'97)
  • #9 Adam Keefe - 5.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg (7.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg in '97-'98)
Picked after them: #4 Jim Jackson, #11 Robert Horry, #24 Latrel Spreewell, #29 PJ Brown

1991:
  • #7 Luc Longley - 7.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg (11.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg in '97-'98)
  • #14 Rich King - 1.9 ppg, 1.0 rpg (2.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg in '91-'92)
Picked after them: #11 Terrell Brandon, #13 Dale Davis, #16 Chris Gatling, #24 Rick Fox

1990:
  • #12 Alec Kessler - 5.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg in '90-'91)
Picked after him: #13 Loy Vaught, #21 Jayson Williams, #29 Toni Kukoc, #45 Antonio Davis, #48 Cedric Ceballos

1989:
  • #2 Danny Ferry - 7.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg (13.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg in '95-'96)
Picked after him: #3 Sean Elliot, #4 Glen Rice, #14 Tim Hardaway, #17 Shawn Kemp, #26 Vlade Divac, #36 Cliff Robinson

6 comments:

Danny Forcella said...

I love the subject, but does it really make sense to just mention a few of the dudes that were picked later that ended up doing well. There were plenty of players picked later that weren't as good. Little bit of a self serving bias with those points.

Rob Dauster said...

You're 100% right about the self-serving bias. If this was an academic study, there would be all kinds of flaws with the info (like I mentioned in the post, is the % of white players that turn into busts any different than the percentage of black players of Europeans?).

The Mayor said...

Since I live in Dallas. Dirk may be foreign but he's still white

Marc said...

why aren't latin players included in this study? I feel that the percentage of latin players drafted into the nba have an extremely high success rate i.e. Carlos Arroyo, Rudy Fernandez, Pau Gausol, Al Horford, Manu Ginobli, Eduardo Najera, "Nene", Anderson Varejao, Leandro Barbosa, Jose Calderon, etc. and that's just off the top of my drunk head

Just sayin...if I were an NBA GM I would draft a team of entirely Latin players.

Ross Weingarten said...

what about reggie miller? he made a ton of all star teams

Anonymous said...

ross....5 is not a ton. marc....if you drafted latin players only youd be a dumb fuck and fired.